but I noticed something else that I had not seen anyone talking about. I have seen reports that in a mock electoral college tally, Obama would win McCain by more than Clinton would win McCain. I believed this at first but at looking at the actual data now I am having second thoughts. I'll run through both scenarios:
Clinton-McCain
Rasmussen Reports lists several states as "likely democratic" or "leans republican" based on past voting history and demographics.
here's what it looks like:
we know Clinton has less pledged delegates than Obama, but she often argues that her wins are "the ones that count". I think she may have a point. look at this... assume she wins all "safely democratic" states. that is in small print because those wins are so likely I won't pay much attention to them. the "likely democratic" states come next - she has won 3, soon to be 4 (pennsylvania) of those 8 states, and wisconsin is said to have the perfect demographics for her - and being an Oregonian, I can assure you my state will not hand our votes to McCain. so that bumps her up to six there, and a "probably" for Minnesota and Washington. I've made the likely wins there a slightly smaller font.Safely Democratic: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).
Likely Democratic:
Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Washington (11) and Wisconsin (10).Leans Democratic:
Iowa (7), New Mexico (5).Toss-Up:
Colorado (9), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), and Ohio (20).Leans Republican:
Florida (27), Virginia (13).Likely Republican: Arkansas (6) and North Carolina (15).
Safely Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).
here's where we get a little sticky. Iowa may or may not go to her, who really knows? I can't see Iowa voting for a woman personally. I can, however, see NM going her way as she won the primary there, and has a strong Latino support.
next is nevada and ohio, she won both primaries there - I don't recall what happened in nevada but she won a very firm win in Ohio, which was very very key in the last election for Bush's nomination. if she can essentially secure a state that might be a problem to anyone else then that is a very good thing! Missouri and Colorado are less likely to go her way but with some campaigning... possibly.
assume virginia won't pick her, but Florida likely will. she has strong support among floridians, as shown among recent polls (55%c-39%o) and florida is a good win to have, being a "republican leaning" state.
and finally I think she can get arkansas with some effort. Bill was after all the governor of arkansas, and she won the primary there comfortably.
bottom line: Clinton has support in states that are usually on the border and would be able to snag those battleground states.
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Obama-McCain
Safely Democratic: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).
Likely Democratic:
Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Washington (11) and Wisconsin (10).Leans Democratic:
Iowa (7), New Mexico (5).Toss-Up:
Colorado (9), Missouri (11), Nevada (5), and Ohio (20).Leans Republican:
Florida (27), Virginia (13).Likely Republican: Arkansas (6) and North Carolina (15).
Safely Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina
(8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).
OK, let's start a new list for Sn. Obama. he has won more states than Hillary as we know, and currently has more pledged delegates. but my problem with Obama as the Dem. nominee is where he has support. from the top:
give him all the safely democratic states as we did with Hillary and move on. next we'll give him Minnesota, Washington, Wisconsin as he won those primaries and then assume he will take Oregon and Michigan (with some work) and New Jersey I expect will vote for either Dem. candidate. even after his first win in Iowa, NH didn't give him a win so let's count them out (only 4 anyway!) and he is painfully lagging in Pennsylvania. it's entirely possibly he would win this big prize but I don't think so.
Give him Iowa, he won the caucus after all. New Mexico will likely go to McCain - Hillary won that primary.
Colorado and Missouri seem to like him quite a bit so let's count those in for him - however I can't see him winning Ohio after such a big loss (especially after he campaigned so hard, I just don't think he can win them over) and Nevada could go either way, but since Hillary won that primary I'll say it goes to McCain.
next up is Virginia, which likes him, so he'll snag them. I don't see him winning Florida as they still support Hillary much more than him, and Hillary supporters (statistically) say they won't support Obama if she isn't nominated.
let's give him NC since the SE seems to love him but his wins stop here.
Yes, he won more of the primaries for most of the next states than Hillary, but the amount of Republicans in these states outweigh the Democrats so he does not have a prayer of winning here. maybe by some miracle, but- not at all likely.
294-Hillary 282-Obama
Conclusion
This puts us at Hillary with 294 and Obama with 282 - a twelve point lead for Hillary. I think I have been fairly conservative with Hillary's wins given the fact that Obama supporters are generally more open to switching support to Hillary in the event she is nominated instead than vice versa (I read an exit poll statistic recently that stated this - alas, I can't find it again, but I'll keep looking!). Yes, I'm a Clinton supporter, but I don't feel I've been at all unreasonable with my thoughts/predictions. I think both candidates have a good shot at beating McCain come november but I think people should not be so quick to dismiss Hillary's claims that her wins are rather vital... she's got a point!
does anyone disagree?
